I thought that I would do things a little bit differently for my 2026 predictions. About a month ago I saw a segment on 60 minutes about Polymarket – an on-line platform where you can make bets on just about any future event. I was fascinated by the concept, which I had never heard of before.
It is different from traditional betting because it is considered to be a prediction exchange rather than a sports book, and therefore regulated under federal not state laws; because of this distinction, it is legal in states like Texas where gambling is prohibited. There are also no odds. You are simply predicting if an event will happen the way you predict it will – yes or no. As an example, if you are predicting a sporting event you are predicting if a team will win or lose – you don’t give or get any points. Polymarket is currently not available to U.S. residents, but there are a growing number of competitors that are.
So I decided to sign up for one of them, and for my 2026 predictions I am going to put my money where my mouth is. I have picked 10 events and I have bet $100 on each. How I do on my predictions will then be very easy to determine – did I make money or lose money overall.
For each prediction I will list the date that I made it and also the percentage that was predicted for my bet to be correct as predicted on that day. The lower the percentage, the higher the potential payout.
Here are my 2026 predictions:
- Pete Hegseth will be the first Trump cabinet member to resign (12/1/25 30%)
- John Cornyn will win the Republican primary for the open Texas seat in the U.S. Senate (12/1/25 38%)
- Kevin Hassett will not be nominated to be the next Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (12/2/25 18%)
- Mike Johnson will be ousted as Speaker of the House before the November elections (12/5/25 59%)
- The Fed will cut interest rates three times in 2026 (12/12/25 28%)
- Three Supreme Court justices will vote to uphold Trump’s ability to impose tariffs in what will turn out to be a losing cause (12/12/25 40%)
- There will be a government shutdown on January 31, 2026 (12/15/25 37%)
- There will be a recession in the U.S. in 2026 (12/15/25 26%)
- The Los Angeles Rams will win the Super Bowl (12/15/25 22%)
- France will win the World Cup (12/15/25 13%)
I hope everyone has a great end to 2025 and a great 2026.
